[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 77.1W AT 24/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 140 NM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 275 NM
S-SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING N-NE AT 9 KT. HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 11N81W TO 13N76W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM
11N-19N BETWEEN 70W-78W AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 67W-70W.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND E CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM TONY
AT 24/0300 UTC. TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.7N 49.2W
AT 24/0300 OR ABOUT 1310 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34
KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N51W TO 28N45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N33W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR
7N30W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN WAVE AND 34W AND 13N-15N
BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N41W TO 8N40W DRIFTING W. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC HINDERING TRACKING OF THIS WAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
11N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS CONTINUING ALONG 8N22W TO 8N28W...
IT RESUMES NEAR 8N32W ALONG 10N36W TO 10N39W...IT RESUMES AGAIN
NEAR 8N41W ALONG 8N43W 10N50W TO 10N57W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 16W-28W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N
BETWEEN 46W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SW MEXICO OVER THE W GULF TO
90W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N
BETWEEN 91W-93W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E
THROUGH SUN. TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL MOVE N ACROSS CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TONIGHT EXPANDING INTO E GULF THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CUBA OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N W OF 79W INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM SANDY. TROPICAL
STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE AND REACH
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA LATE WED CROSSING E CUBA WED NIGHT
WHERE IT LOSES STRENGTH BACK TO TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM TONY IS A CONCERN TONIGHT FOR THE
CENTRAL ATLC...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
FLORIA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 32N69W DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND CUBA FROM 66W-80W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 27N W OF 60W AND IS
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 180 NM OFF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 32N W OF
BERMUDA THEN DIPS S INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N55W ALONG
21N53W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 3N47W AND SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TROPICAL STORM TONY IS TO THE E
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED
BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N37W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 14N34W TO
23N43W AND IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THU
WHILE MAINTAINING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SW ATLC AS
TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES N AND
INTENSIFIES TO HURRICANE ON WED. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS E CUBA WED NIGHT AND EMERGE OFF THE N COAST OF CUBA AS
TROPICAL STORM EARLY THU CROSSING THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE FRI
BEFORE MOVING MORE NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE SUN AS AN
EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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