[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 212332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND
EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF HIGH TERRAIN.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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