[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N74W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N76W...THROUGH THE 1006 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE
AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS
JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BETWEEN 65W AND 82W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N46W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N47W...THROUGH THE 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...TO 12N44W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT UPPER LEVEL
WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 14N TO
21N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER OF GAMBIA
AND SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 12N20W 11N32W AND 9N39W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 9N39W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
4N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W AND FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN
23W AND 32W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N17W 13N32W 10N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...REACHING
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N77W...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N80W JUST TO THE
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO DISSIPATE
FROM 25N80W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 23N86W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N71W 27N76W 25N80W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N66W 27N69W 24N73W
AND ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA
AND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W...PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N81W IN
FLORIDA...TO 24N84W 22N88W 23N91W 24N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 20N87W...TO EASTERN HONDURAS...TO 12N82W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC IS 1.25 INCHES.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 23N94W...BEYOND 19N98W
IN MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT OF THE WIND EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY...TURNING TO NORTHEASTERLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD
NICARAGUA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF NICARAGUA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN 66W AND 80W...MOVING AROUND A 17N72W UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES INTO CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 20N49W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND A RELATED TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT
THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 15N74W...
AT 24 HOURS IT MOVES TO 1005 MB POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
NEAR 15N77W...AT 48 HOURS IT MOVES TO 1004 MB POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 14N79W...20 TO 30 WINDS AND
8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST AROUND THE FEATURE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 28N41W AND
25N49W...TO A 20N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N55W...
TO THE BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 37W AND 55W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THIS AREA IS WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING WITH TIME.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N10W TO 29N21W TO A 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N40W. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 43N51W TO
33N54W 28N62W AND 25N75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 22N47W 17N46W 12N44W TROPICAL WAVE WITH 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N46W ALONG THE WAVE...FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 43W AND 48W EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SECOND FEATURE
IS A 31N45W 28N35W COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS...AND AT 48 HOURS
COLD FRONT 23N48W 21N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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