[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N31W TO 6N34W MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 30W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N52W TO 14N52W MOVING W-NW NEAR
15-20 KT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AS INDICATED
BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER. THE WAVE ALSO LIES BENEATH A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS HELPING
ENHANCE CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 44W-50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO JUST SE OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 50W-52W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 9N20W TO 9N30W TO 6N35W TO 6N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N40W TO 9N46W TO 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
18W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM  CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
28N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W TO NE MEXICO AT
24N98W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S
FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 80W-81W...AND OVER NE MEXICO FROM
25N-26N BETWEEN 97W-98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE E GULF FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 82W-90W...AND OVER
THE W GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 96W-100W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO BE
PREVALENT OVER NE MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 21N82W TO 13N81W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 80W-90W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. FURTHER S...CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA... AND
COSTA RICA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 17N68W TO 11N68W MOVING W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 60W-73W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT OVER MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
HAVING THE LEAST SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W
TO 28N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 80W-90W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 32N54W TO 27N58W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
LARGE 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS AT 18N52W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-25N BETWEEN
35W-50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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