[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 17/2100 UTC RAFAEL WAS MADE POST-TROPICAL AND THE LAST
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. LOCATION IS NEAR
40.2N 56.5W...ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LAST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. POST-
TROPICAL RAFAEL IS NOW CONSIDERED EXTRATROPICAL...WITH
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND GALE-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM. OCEAN SWELL GENERATED
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COAST OF EASTERN CANADA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SWELL IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 41N-42N BETWEEN
55W-57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM 45N-48N BETWEEN 47W-58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS IS ALONG 39W TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 36W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 8N18W TO 8N30W TO 10N35W. THE ITCZ IS W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 12N42W TO 10N50W TO 12N57W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 10W-30W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SE
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S
FLORIDA AT 27N81W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N85W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE SE GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO AT 20N100W.
RIDGING IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 85W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM MOBILE
ALABAMA TO THE NW GULF TO CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING PREDOMINATELY 10 KT WINDS. THE
TRADEWINDS ARE THUS TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 21N86W TO HONDURAS AT 16N85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN.
FURTHER S... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA AT 11N81W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 77W-86W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N
COLOMBIA...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
66W-74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 60W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM
PUERTO RICO TO COSTA RICA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE
PREVALENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
S OF HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL IS WELL N OF THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W
TO 29N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 27N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FURTHER E FROM 31N56W TO 23N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE 1026
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N38W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N59W TO 10N58W MOVING W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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