[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 65.0W AT 16/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 300 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER
OVER THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 64W-67W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
OF LINE FROM 18N60W TO 21N63W...FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W...
AND FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 60W-68W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE IS EXTENDS FROM 15N35W TO 8N35W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING ACTIVITY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N49W TO 12N47W MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND
REMAINS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 90N25W TO 9N32W THEN RESUMES NEAR 10N42W ALONG
8N49W 9N56W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
30W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 24W-40W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE W
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 16/0900 UTC N OF TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 27N86W
TO 27N91W WHERE IT PULLS OF STATIONARY TO OVER S TEXAS NEAR
BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. THIS IS A RELATIVELY DRY
FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 20N FROM ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W TIP OF
CUBA INTO THE SE GULF TO NEAR 25N86W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 81W-86W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF CUBA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY
A 1016 MB HIGH OVER OHIO. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WHILE SINKING S ACROSS E GULF REACHING
FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS BY THIS
EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU AND REACH
FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FRI MORNING AND
WEAKEN FROM FORT MYERS TO CORPUS CHRISTI SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 20N FROM ACROSS MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO 85W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO OVER E HONDURAS. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N83W ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA INTO THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 80W-83W AND S OF 21N TO
INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN 85W AND THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
RAFAEL COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W OVER THE ABC
ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W ASSOCIATED WITH
FEEDER BANDS OF HURRICANE RAFAEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 13N76W ALONG 11N81W TO OVER
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N AND AWAY FROM
THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE RAFAEL
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC
THROUGH 32N76W TO 24N75W THEN NARROWS AS IT ENTERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N77W ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E
OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL AND
COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 50W-70W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL. A
NARROWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N25W ALONG
22N38W TO THE BASE NEAR 10N47W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE. THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL BE ABOUT 120 NM
E-SE OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING BEFORE ACCELERATING NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM
JUST E OF BERMUDA TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS FRI AND EXTEND FROM 32N73W TO
HOBE SOUND FLORIDA ON SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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