[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 25.9N 65.3W AT 16/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 395 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
64W-68W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 19N64W TO 22N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 21N-30N
BETWEEN 60W-67W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
17N32W TO 9N31W DRIFTING W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 28W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N47W TO 10N44W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS AT
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 10N24W TO 11N28W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N33W TO
10N42W THEN RESUMES NEAR 10N47W TO 12N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
26W-31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
20W-26W AND FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 27W-44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-16W AND FROM 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 7N44W TO 10N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE W
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 16/0300 UTC N OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG
29N87W TO 27N95W WHERE IT PULLS OF STATIONARY TO OVER S TEXAS
NEAR BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. THIS IS A
RELATIVELY DRY FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 20N FROM ACROSS MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N84W INTO THE SE GULF TO NEAR 25N84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 25N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 88W. A SECOND EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N93W TO 21N94W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 94W-96W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE FRONT COVERING THE W GULF AND ANCHORED BY
A 1017 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL WILL REACH FROM
NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS BY TUE EVENING
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU AND REACH FROM CEDAR KEY
FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FRI MORNING AND WEAKEN FROM FORT
MYERS TO CORPUS CHRISTI SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 20N FROM ACROSS MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 84W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO OVER E HONDURAS. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/MONA
PASSAGE...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BANDS OF HURRICANE RAFAEL.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N76W ACROSS S NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 11N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 80W AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE N AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT WITH SWELLS FROM RAFAEL
SPREADING THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TUE THEN
DIMINISHING ON WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT IS HURRICANE RAFAEL N OF
PUERTO RICO...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE NARROW UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH
32N78W TO 24N76W THEN NARROWS AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION JUST OFF THE SE CONUS COAST AT 16/0300 UTC THROUGH 32N79W
ACROSS FLORIDA N OF JACKSONVILLE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM E OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N77W TO 24N75W. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE RAFAEL COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 50W-70W AND PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE RAFAEL. A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E
ATLC NEAR 32N26W ALONG 23N37W TO THE BASE NEAR 10N48W. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE. THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL BE ABOUT 120 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA TUE
EVENING BEFORE ACCELERATING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NW WATERS TUE AND DISSIPATE FROM JUST E OF
BERMUDA TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS FRI AND EXTEND FROM 32N73W TO HOBE
SOUND FLORIDA ON SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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