[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS NEAR 23.5N 65.8W AT
15/1800 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 530 NM TO THE SOUTH
OF BERMUDA. RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 64W AND
68W...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 59W AND 70W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FROM THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...FOR GUADELOUPE
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC IS 0.39...AND 4.06 FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY
RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF
THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS ALSO ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY...AND THE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE
SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND
PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED ONLY TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA BECAUSE OF THE ITCZ...AND BECAUSE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT
EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED ONLY TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA BECAUSE OF THE
ITCZ...AND BECAUSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF SENEGAL AND
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 13N16W TO 9N19W AND 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N21W TO 11N37W AND 11N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND
36W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 13N
BETWEEN 30W AND 42W AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 20W AND FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT CUTS
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...IS SHEARING SOME
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS OCCURRING FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W IS BEING
PUSHED BY THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...
REACHING 27N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS AWAY
FROM THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO 28N103W IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
WITHIN 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM LOUISIANA
TO TEXAS. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 92W AND THE
MEXICO COAST...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST FROM 18N
TO 22N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
27N83W ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST...TO 24N90W...TO 24N98W ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO
WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...BEYOND CENTRAL HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH
THE POINTS THAT ARE LISTED IN THE TITLE OF THIS SECTION...
THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N77W IN THE
BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W...18N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND CENTRAL HONDURAS AND
EL SALVADOR. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN
240 NM ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF 21N78W 15N83W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
29N74W 27N73W 23N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N
TO THE EAST OF 85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N
TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW PATTERN THAT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
32N26W 5N44W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY GRADUALLY...FROM
EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN
THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND THE 32N72W-TO-
EL SALVADOR TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N...FROM 73W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
SYNOPSIS/FORECAST SECTION OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 33 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO
12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT MAY REACH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BECAUSE OF T.S. RAFAEL.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 25N35W 18N41W
11N45W 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.
A CERTAIN PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH IS SHEARING SOME OF THE HIGHER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THAT IS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT T.S. RAFAEL...A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS NEAR
27.4N 64.9W...AND A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS NEAR 35.4N 59.8W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS...FROM 9N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W IN GENERAL TERMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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