[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 65.1W AT 15/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 225 NM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 615 NM
S OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 19N62W
TO 21N62W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N65W TO 24N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N65W TO ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 18N61W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 59W-64W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N40W TO 9N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND AT THE BASE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH. ANY CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 6N27W WHERE THE ITCZ
AXIS BEGINS TO 7N36W THEN RESUMES SW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
7N43W TO 8N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND
SIERRA LEONE...FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 30W-41W...WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM 9N51W TO 14N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE E CONUS SUPPORTING A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WATERS W OF 86W EXTENDING FROM
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN TO NEAR
17N86W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E
OF 86W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N
BETWEEN 81W-83W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N83W TO 21N86W
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE N GULF LATER TODAY AND
DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST EARLY THU AND REACH FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO NE
MEXICO N OF TAMPICO BY FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N83W TO
21N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 82W-86W. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
15N69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ALONG 11N80W THEN ACROSS S NICARAGUA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN
75W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. RAFAEL WILL INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE N
AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...WITH SWELL FROM RAFAEL MOVING
THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES MON THROUGH TUE AND DIMINISHING ON
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL N-NE OF
PUERTO RICO...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE NARROW UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N70W ALONG 26N76W THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT ARE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND MELBOURNE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN
50W-70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS ALONG 28N29W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N38W TO THE BASE
NEAR 12N46W IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 20W-34W
INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N45W TO 21N48W. THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N37W. RAFAEL WILL INTENSIFY
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH MON MORNING ABOUT 275 NM N OF PUERTO RICO
REACHING ABOUT 285 NM S OF BERMUDA BY TUE MORNING AND REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NE OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW ATLC TUE THROUGH WED DISSIPATING THU.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW WATERS FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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