[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS NEAR 20.3N 64.4W AT
14/1800 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 145 NM TO THE NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND ABOUT 725 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
BERMUDA. RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...REPORTED 4.06 INCHES OF RAIN
IN GUADELOUPE FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC. RAFAEL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.  CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED ONLY
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA BECAUSE OF
THE ITCZ...AND BECAUSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 10N20W AND 9N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N30W TO
8N39W AND 7N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 15N TO THE EAST OF 56W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
IS SHEARING SOME OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W FROM 7N TO 13N. THE TROUGH HAS
BEEN APPARENT IN THE SCATTEROMETER DATA DURING THE LAST FEW
MAP ANALYSIS TIME PERIODS...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...
FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO 28N90W...TO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE MEXICO COAST FROM 21N TO 22N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET...
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W FOR ABOUT THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...
TO WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND HONDURAS...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH
THE POINTS THAT ARE LISTED IN THE TITLE OF THIS SECTION...
THROUGH 32N67W 26N77W...23N81W IN CUBA...19N83W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 15N87W
IN HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. MOISTURE AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH/
SHEAR AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N76W 22N75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
25N TO 30N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED
MODERATE COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM
23N TO 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 13N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 24N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BEYOND 32N53W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN THE 13N65W 32N53W RIDGE AND THE
32N67W 15N87W TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N...FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N BETWEEN 77W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
WIND CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH RESPECT TO T.S. RAFAEL...STILL
A TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS NEAR 23.2N 66.2W...AND
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS NEAR 29.1N 64.8W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MOROCCO NEAR 32N9W
TO 27N27W...TO A 20N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 7N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. A CERTAIN PART OF THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH IS
SHEARING SOME OF THE HIGHER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT T.S. RAFAEL...STILL A TROPICAL STORM IN
24 HOURS NEAR 23.2N 66.2W...AND FORECAST TO BECOME
A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS NEAR 29.1N 64.8W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FEET...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N61W 29N67W 22N79W...IN 24 HOURS
TO THE WEST OF THE LINE 31N55W 25N76W...AND IN 48 HOURS
THE CONDITIONS MERGING WITH RAFAEL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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