[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 63.6W AT 14/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 45 NM NW OF SAINT MARTIN OR ABOUT 90 NM NE OF SAINT
CROIX MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 60W-65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-26N BETWEEN 54W-66W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 17N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. BROAD AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS AS IT COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES IN RECENT
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 33W-37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
09N24W TO 09N33W TO 07N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N37W TO 06N42W TO 08N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-16N BETWEEN 20W-35W...AND FROM 07N-10N
BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
PROVIDING NW TO N FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
INFLUENCES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH
CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 39N71W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TO THE SW GULF WITH
CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OVER THE
SW NORTH ATLC TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N81W TO 12N87W.
NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...A CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 11N84W TO 21N77W.
MID-LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA...THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
JAMAICA...AND AN AREA FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC REGION ALONG 10N/11N AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA...AND WESTERN PANAMA. FINALLY...TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL
IS CENTERED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND LIES ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 16N59W.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROVIDING AMPLE DIFFLUENCE FOR THE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS OCCURRING WITH
RAFAEL AT THIS TIME. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON AN OVERALL
NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N72W SW TO 22N81W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WHICH IS RESULTING IN
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF
27N AND W OF 78W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER
OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA USHERED IN BY BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 21N75W TO 27N72W AND IS PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 72W-79W. SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...CONVECTION FROM TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL CONTINUES TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS FROM 11N-32N BETWEEN 54W-67W.
RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH LATE
MONDAY AND BEGIN A GRADUAL N TO NE TRACK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVES EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N34W. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SURFACE RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 22N35W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net