[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DEVELOPED AT 11/1500 UTC.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN AT 11/1500 UTC
IS NEAR 25.4N 72.6W...MOVING SOUTHWARD 1 KNOT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO
27N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DEPRESSION AND AT THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT THAT REACHES 31N70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 11/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.58.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N57W 11N58W 6N56W
IN NORTHERN COASTAL SURINAME. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT
15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM
9N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS TO THE EAST OF 64W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 64W ALSO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N67W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
11/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.73...FOR GUADELOUPE 0.60...
AND 0.22 FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 6N20W AND 4N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N24W
TO 4N32W AND 4N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 24N
TO THE EAST OF 89W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN SEVENTY FIVE PERCENT OF THE AREA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N95W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TWENTY FIVE PERCENT OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA...BEYOND THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N11W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 32N13W...CURVING TO 31N25W 29N29W 22N35W AND 20N37W.
A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N37W TO 27N55W...21N60W...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH 19N64W TO A 17N67W UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE EAST OF
64W.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN THE 21N60W 10N68W TROUGH AND THE LINE THAT CONNECTS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA...AND THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS
AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 70W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST
OF 80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA STRAITS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT
ENDED AT 11/1200 UTC WAS 1.26 FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
10N73W TO 11N79W BEYOND WEST CENTRAL COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM PANAMA TO 10N BETWEEN
77W AND 78W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 64W.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC BASIN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE STARTS ALONG 57W/58W TROPICAL
WAVE. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N58W...STAYING
STATIONARY AT 24 HOURS...BECOMING A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
1004 MB NEAR 15N61W AT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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