[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 9.5N ALONG THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7.5N54W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN
46W AND 58W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE WARMING.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUDS THAT
ARE IN THE AREA OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KNOTS TOWARD THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 6N20W AND 5N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N22W
TO 5N28W 4N35W AND 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W NEAR GUINEA-BISSAU...
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF
46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES IN THE U.S.A...AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY...REACHES THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N
TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 26N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA AFTER THE COLD FRONT OF 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W
AND 96W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 21N97W 23N90W
26N82W.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N24W TO 28N32W 27N50W...
TO A 15N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N73W...TO
A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 9N77W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE...CONSISTING OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 27N26W 24N34W 23N46W
22N55W...CURVING TO 21N57W

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND BELIZE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W...IN AN AREA OF SOME
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HAS BEEN AN AREA OF BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST
48 HOURS OR SO. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSES THROUGH
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG
10N/11N...THROUGH 11N80W...AND THROUGH AND BEYOND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 11N
BETWEEN 71W AND 75W AT 10/0845 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION
EVENTUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND THEN IT WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG NOW IS FROM 7N
TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA AND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W IN PANAMA AND TO THE NORTH OF
PANAMA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM NORTHEASTERN
COSTA RICA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 24N TO 32N.
A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N ALONG THE TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO
THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE CHANCE
OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS LOW. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE LITTLE.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 66W.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC BASIN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO BE RELATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
STARTS ALONG 53W...MOVES TO 56W AT 24 HOURS...AND TO 60W AT
48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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