[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N52W TO 9N53W TO 5N53W MOVING
W AT 15 KT. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME
COMPARATIVELY BETTER ORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-17N BETWEEN 50W-55W. AN EMBEDDED
1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT 9N53W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE
WAVE. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
13 KNOTS TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
6N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
6N20W TO 4N25W TO 7N43W TO 11N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 20W-33W...AND FROM 7N-13N
BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE UNITED STATES...N MEXICO...AND THE GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 81W-84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N HONDURAS
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 80W-89W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND
OVER N COLOMBIA AT 8N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 71W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SIMILAR SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WHILE NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
28N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO THE LOW TO
24N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
71W-73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN
67W-71W. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
36N42W. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 12N E OF 38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N49W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 30W-50W...AND FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 24W-30W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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