[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N48W TO 13N51W TO 9N51W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N51W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
8N20W TO 6N30W TO 7N36W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO 11N44W TO 9N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR
31N84W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE UNITED STATES...N MEXICO...AND THE GULF N OF 26N WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE S GULF S OF
23N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN
80W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
BETWEEN 76W-84W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...WHILE NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
28N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO THE LOW TO
24N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
71W-74W...AND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 67W-71W. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N46W. ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N15W. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST
AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 12N E OF 38W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-27N BETWEEN 25W-50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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