[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N45W TO 9N43W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 9N43W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
40W-47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 8N20W TO 6N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 6N30W TO 8N40W TO 9N44W TO THE COAST OF
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 37W-40W...AND FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 47W-50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 50W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA
AT 29N81W TO 25N90W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20N96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 94W-97W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE UNITED STATES...N MEXICO...AND THE GULF N OF 25N
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
S MEXICO NEAR 18N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 13N83W TO PANAMA AT 9N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 76W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER W HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
88W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N70W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N W OF 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW AT
26N75W TO 23N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 70W-74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N23W TO 27N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY
AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 12N E OF 38W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 22N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-24N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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