[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 8N ALONG THE WAVE.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 38W AND 39W.

THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS BEING ANALYZED
ALONG 84W AT 08/0600 UTC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR
13N17W TO 10N28W...THROUGH THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS ALONG THE 37W/38W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE
1008 MB LOW CENTER TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 54W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W AND FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
24 HOURS AGO. REMNANTS OF THAT TROUGH REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
22N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
LOUISIANA. THAT TROUGH SOMEWHAT COMES INTO PHASE WITH AN
EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH 90W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...ABOUT 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS AT THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST NEAR 29N83W...TO A NEWLY-FORMED 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W...TO 26N90W 25N96W...
TO 21N99W IN MEXICO...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MEXICO AND
BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA
AND 84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
RUNS FROM 26N80W...JUST OFF THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
23N85W...ABOUT 80 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N84W
27N79W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS...TO THE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N83W 26N95W
22N98W...TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
AT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10.5N 81.5W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...IN
THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...INTO
EASTERN PANAMA...TO THE 1012 MB SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
LOW PRESSURE CENTER...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND 80W TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA...HAS WEAKENED.
RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE IN THIS AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N70W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
67W AND 77W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS OCCURRING FROM PUERTO
RICO SOUTHWARD AND TO THE EAST OF 68W IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N55W ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO
COAST NEAR 29N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 76W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS CLOSER
TO 26N IS PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT
STARTS NEAR 26N80W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 20N TO 26N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W...REACHING PARTS OF THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND CONTINUING FOR ABOUT
300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N52W TO 32N59W AND 33N70W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 31N19W 28N31W 29N43W...MERGING WITH THE 34N52W
33N70W RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N55W.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 48W
AND 65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W...AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 68W.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W FOR ABOUT THE FIRST
30 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN 24 HOURS FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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