[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N37W TO 8N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE WHERE A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 34W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS FROM 18N84W TO 10N83W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD MONSOONAL FLOW
AROUND AN EXTENSION OF THE E PAC MONSOON TROUGH. ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE...
WHILE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 16N17W
TO 10N25W TO 8N36W TO 7N43W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N43W TO THE
COAST OF GUYANA AT 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-14N
BETWEEN 17W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 27W-34W...AND FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA
AT 31N82W TO 27N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-88W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 26N BETWEEN 82W-98W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IN
24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A LAX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
PREDOMINATELY 10 KT EASTERLY WINDS. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N74W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 9N84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
77W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 14N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA
RICA TO GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER HAITI AND E CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 72W-79W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 60W-66W. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N W OF 74W. A 1010 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 70W-75W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N21W
TO 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 24N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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