[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 8N33W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE WHERE A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 32W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS FROM 18N82W TO 11N81W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD MONSOONAL FLOW
AROUND AN EXTENSION OF THE E PAC MONSOON TROUGH. ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE...
WHILE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 16N17W
TO 8N33W TO 7N44W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N44W TO THE COAST OF
GUYANA AT 6N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
26W-29W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA
AT 30N83W TO 27N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N-29N BETWEEN 84W-89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
24N BETWEEN 80W-97W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT
WHILE 10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONTINUED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A LAX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
PREDOMINATELY 10 KT EASTERLY WINDS. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N COLOMBIA AT 11N74W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 9N84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 72W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HAITI AND E
CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 72W-79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 60W-66W. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N W OF 74W. A 1009 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 71W-74W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N22W TO
23N40W TO 25N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net