[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N28W
ALONG 12N29W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 9N28W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM HAITI NEAR 18N69W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N84W TO 11N80W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS TRAILING AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W 1N22W THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE
TROPICAL WAVE THEN 9N36W TO 8N40W. THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY NOT
DISCERNIBLE IN THE ATLC BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 31W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N E OF 16W TO
INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 17W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES TO OVER NEW ENGLAND NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO OVER LOUISIANA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NEAR VERACRUZ
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 07/0300 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO 29N91W THEN NW TO A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST JUST S OF GALVESTON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N87W AND CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL
MOISTURE N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N E OF 95W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS KEEPING THE N GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY SUN AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE MEXICO LATE
MON WHERE IT STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 11N W OF 79W.
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER HAITI/GULF OF GONAVE NEAR 19N73W
AND COVERING THE AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 67W-77W. THE UPPER LOW NE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF
67W LEAVING THE S CARIBBEAN WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER
HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 69W-77W AND S OF 13N TO INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 62W-75W. ABUNDANCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N E OF 81W TO OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL REACH
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUNDAY AND INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
NEAR BOCA RATON FLORIDA TO 31N72W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC FROM HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 28N69W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-26N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1007 MB LOW IS
BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE AND IS ANALYZED NEAR 22N67W. AN UPPER
LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N60W COVERING THE AREA
FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 52W-63W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 22N58W TO 18N60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 53W-61W. A LARGE
UPPER LOW COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 20W-50W AND
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N25W
CONTINUING ALONG 26N32W 23N42W TO 23N48W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 25N54W 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE 1007 MB
LOW WILL DRIFT W ACROSS THE SW ATLC THROUGH SUN THEN DISSIPATE
BY SUN NIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DRIFT W ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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