[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR AT 05/1500 UTC IS NEAR
24.1N 37.1W MOVING NE AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR IS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY IS
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM
18N-23N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 16N18W TO
9N22W MOVING W AT 10 KT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LONG LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO VERIFIES WAVE LOCATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 20N57W TO
10N60W MOVING W AT 15 KT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LONG LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO VERIFIES WAVE LOCATION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 52W-57W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 54W-61W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N71W TO 8N73W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 71W-73W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO
8N23W TO 11N33W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N38W TO 8N45W
TO 13N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 21W-26W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 27N86W TO 24N90W TO SOUTH MEXICO AT 18N94W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF FROM 22N-32N
BETWEEN 85W-91W...AND OVER THE SW GULF FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
91W-97W. FURTHER W... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO
NEAR 22N101W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER TEXAS...N MEXICO AND
THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER MEXICO AT 20N98W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE
CENTER...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW AND E GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PERSIST
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER
THE E GULF DUE TO CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA
RICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 74W-85W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
60W-70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER TRINIDAD AND NE
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 60W-64W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA...OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO 29N43W
TO 28N50W TO 29N60W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N34W TO
27N40W TO 26N50W TO 27N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE REMNANTS OF T.S. OSCAR ARE
OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N14W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NW OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 65W-69W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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