[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR
23.0N 38.9W. OSCAR IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 13 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN
35W AND 38W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 9N TO 20N.
THIS POSITION IS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WAVE IS THE WAVE
THAT ORIGINALLY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
OSCAR. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 21N60W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER TO 25N54W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N66W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W...AND FROM 14N TO 22N
BETWEEN 53W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 20N68W IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 10N69W IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 21N60W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N54W..AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N66W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
STREAMING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 16N66W. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT REACHES 16N66W ENDS UP BEING CAUGHT
UP IN THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N60W CYCLONIC
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N
TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W...AND BETWEEN 66W AND 74W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO 9N25W 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W TO 9N48W
AND 11N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 11W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN
14W AND 15W...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 29W AND 32W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. THIS FEATURE IS QUITE
PROMINENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WITH SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 29N91W 22N98W UNDER
THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA
NEAR 30N82W TO 24N90W...CURVING TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 19N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
MEXICO TO 21N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 26N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 18N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 20N68W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 10N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N60W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER TO 25N54W..AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N66W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 16N66W. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW THAT REACHES 16N66W ENDS UP BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 21N60W CYCLONIC CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 22N
BETWEEN 53W AND 64W...AND BETWEEN 66W AND 74W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 26N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...AND
BEYOND 84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 12N IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 76W ALONG
THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 83W/84W ALONG THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA
BORDER AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N65W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 21N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N77W TO 25N68W AND 21N60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N60W. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS 24N54W TO THE CENTER...AND
THEN TO 16N66W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 16N66W.
ALL THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT REACHES 16N66W
ENDS UP BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 21N60W CYCLONIC CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
24N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...ISOLATED STRONG ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 24N41W.
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT ARE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 34W AND
65W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N17W TO 16N32W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM OSCAR....AND FOR A GALE WARNING FOR
A COLD FRONT 31N39W 29N52W 31N63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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