[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 04/1200 UTC IS NEAR
39.0N 27.2W. NADINE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NOW IN THE
AZORES. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH OR LESS IN PARTS OF THE AZORES THROUGH
THURSDAY. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. NADINE IS ABOUT
225 NM TO THE EAST OF A COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 37N27W 24N29W 33N31W 32N33W...POSSIBLY MOSTLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED
DIRECTLY ONLY TO NADINE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR
20.0N 42.5W. OSCAR IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 37W AND 40.5W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N...REACHING NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N56W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N64W JUST
AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N56W
CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 10N64W IN VENEZUELA
TO 17N58W TO 24N55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W
TO 15N20W 10N24W 7N30W 7N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N34W TO
10N44W 12N50W AND 12N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 9.5N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
29W AND 40W AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N103W. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FRONT
WEAKENED...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BEYOND 21N97W AT THE MEXICO
COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE SAME LINE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N88W ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/
ALABAMA BORDER...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
BEYOND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N...REACHING NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N56W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N64W JUST AT THE EDGE OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM 10N64W IN VENEZUELA TO 17N58W TO 24N55W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE FROM 18N73W IN HAITI TO 14N79W AND 14N83W AT THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...
AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 3N TO 11N IN SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS
AND IN COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF URABA BETWEEN 73W AND 82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
33N68W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N52W
24N62W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER.
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N70W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST
OF 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N56W. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 22N56W CENTER TO
27N50W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO
19N64W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND
58W...AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N19W TO 25N25W AND 16N30W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM OSCAR. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT
12 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE TO 31N38W 27N50W AT 24 HOURS...AND TO 25N35W
24N50W AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 13 FEET ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR 24N66W AT 42 HOURS INTO THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT MOVES TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 24N67W
AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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