[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 040833
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  87
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

NADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING.  THERE
IS NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS
IN A BAND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE WEST.  RECENT AMSU DATA
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A WARM CORE...SO IT WILL BE
KEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY CAN BETTER REVEAL
THE STRUCTURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A
37-KT WIND REPORT AT LAJES AIR FORCE BASE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/20.  NADINE IS BEING STEERED BY A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.

NADINE SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR...MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS DURING AND AFTER THE
TRANSITION.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED INTO
THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48-72 HR...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 38.4N  28.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 41.9N  26.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  05/0600Z 45.2N  26.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  05/1800Z 47.0N  26.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  06/0600Z 48.5N  27.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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