[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 04/0600 UTC IS NEAR
37.6N 29.3W. NADINE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 21 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 NM/ 220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
NADINE RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH/ 65 KM/H.
TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AZORES
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NADINE IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
PARTS OF THE AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AZORES. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC... AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. NADINE IS
ABOUT 400 NM TO THE EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 32N
TO 36N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W...MOSTLY WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT.
IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED DIRECTLY
ONLY TO NADINE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR
19.3N 42.2W. OSCAR IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N59W...PASSING
ON TOP OF MARTINIQUE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N63W
IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N56W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N64W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 22N56W
CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 18N TO
24N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W...AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W
TO 15N20W 10N25W 6N33W 7N38W AND 9N42W. THE ITCZ IS BROKEN UP BY
THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND T.S. OSCAR.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N49W TO 13N60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 21W AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
10N28W 7N36W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO
NEAR 19N104W. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT.
THAT FRONT NOW IS DISSIPATING AND IT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ENDING
IN THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 21N97W ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE SAME LINE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO 27N90W 23N95W AND SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N59W...PASSING ON
TOP OF MARTINIQUE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N63W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N56W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N64W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 22N56W CYCLONIC
CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W
AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN
52W AND 58W...AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN
68W AND 69W AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...SCATTERED
STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...8N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/
VENEZUELA BORDER AND 81W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 68W AND 80W FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
33N70W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N48W
26N60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER.
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N69W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST
OF 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N56W. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 22N56W CENTER TO
27N50W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO
19N64W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND
58W...AROUND THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
33N19W TO 27N25W AND 16N33W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM OSCAR. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT
12 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS NEAR 24.5N64W AT 42 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net