[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 03/1200 UTC IS NEAR 34.9N
34.0W. NADINE IS ABOUT 387 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING E AT 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NADINE
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IN PARTS OF THE AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 32N TO 35N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 16N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
17N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
22N34W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
13N TO 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY. THE CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 9 TO 13 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW. THE WAVE IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE SOUTH OF A 24N54W
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS
IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
TO 9N18W 6N22W AND 5N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N28W TO
7N40W AND 9N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN
50W AND 54W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...THROUGH THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR THE GUATEMALA BORDER. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N88W IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...25N90W...TO 21N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE SAME LINE.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
91W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W MOVING
AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE 19N87W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 18 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 16N85W NEAR
THE EASTERN HONDURAS COAST. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 84W.
THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 03/0000 UTC FOR HAVANA CUBA WAS 0.87 OF AN INCH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 28N48W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 24N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 17N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TO THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
9N60W 14N66W 17N72W 19N76W...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA.
THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 03/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.44 OF AN INCH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N IN THE
WATER BETWEEN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RAINSHOWERS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W.
THIS IS PRECIPITATION THAT IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...IN AN
AREA OF MOIST SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT ALSO IS WITHIN
300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 28N48W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 24N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 17N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 57W AND
59W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 49W AND 56W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW...IN BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. ONE RIDGE GOES FROM
25N30W BEYOND 32N24W. A SECOND RIDGE IS ALONG 31N43W TO
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N63W TO 30N77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N40W
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THAT MOVES TO 1006 MB
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 19N43W AT 24 HOURS...AND TO
1004 MB POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 22N41W IN 48 HOURS.
A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 43W AT 30 HOURS
AND AT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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