[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 03/0600 UTC IS NEAR
34.5N 35.4W. NADINE IS ABOUT 455 NM/845 KM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING EASTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE
READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 34N TO 35N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 14N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 34W AND 43W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THE CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH...
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 9 TO 13 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N51W 14N55W 8N56W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW. THE WAVE IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE SOUTH OF A 25N52W MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W
AND 57W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE
CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W 7N16W 5N22W 5N31W. THE REST OF THE AREA IS BROKEN UP BY
THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT SURROUNDS THE 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N39W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 10N44W
12N49W 12N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
5N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W
AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 32W AND
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA FROM 30N TO 31N ALONG 82W/83W...
THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR THE GUATEMALA BORDER.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N87W IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...25N90W...TO 21N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST
OF THE SAME LINE.

A BROAD AND FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE 19N87W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 18 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 16N85W NEAR
THE EASTERN HONDURAS COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 80W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT
ENDED AT 03/0000 UTC FOR HAVANA CUBA WAS 0.87 OF AN INCH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 28N48W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 25N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 18N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TO THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE WATERS THAT
ARE IN THE WESTERN HAITI COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH
TIME. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
03/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.44 OF AN INCH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
AND 86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE MONSOON TROUGH
AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF 78W FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NORTHWARD. THIS IS PRECIPITATION THAT IS UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...IN AN AREA OF MOIST SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
THAT ALSO IS WITHIN 280 NM TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 28N48W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 25N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 18N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W IN SURFACE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW...IN BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14N39W
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THAT MOVES TO 1005 MB
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 19N41W AT 24 HOURS...AND TO
1004 MB POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 21N42W IN 48 HOURS.
A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 42W AT 36 HOURS
AND AT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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