[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 34.4N 36.1W AT 03/0000
UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 490 NM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING E AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC
AD THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE E SEMICIRCLE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC HAS BEEN DROPPED.
THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS AND IS CENTERED NEAR 14N39W
MOVING W 10- 13 KT. LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
LOW IS ALONG THE W EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE DRAWING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM THE LOW ALONG 16N40W 20N35W TO 19N32W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOVE EXTENDING FROM
18N51W ALONG 12N54W TO 8N55W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W CONTINUING S ALONG 6N187W TO 7N27N. THE ITCZ IS
BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 11N43W TO
11N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 19W-24W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING
BUT HAS LOST ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THUS IT HAS BECOME
STATIONARY AT 02/2100 UTC EXTENDING THROUGH CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ALONG 25N85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR CANCUN ALONG THE
N BORDER OF BELIZE THEN ACROSS N GUATEMALA. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF THE FRONT BEING GENERATED BY A
SIMILAR UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW/TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF N OF 20N W OF 90W DRAWING DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE GULF GIVING MOST OF THE W GULF CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 93W-95W. STATIONARY FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF WED THROUGH SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE N GULF STATES LATE SAT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W TO PANAMA AND COUPLED WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DRAWN TROPICAL MOISTURE N
WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF
A LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W ALONG 18N83W TO ACROSS W CUBA NEAR
COLON. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR NEAR 13N70W AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E
OF 73W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CUBA AND JAMAICA. W
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN BY FRI ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH.
TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REACH THE E
CARIBBEAN BY EARLY FRI. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED OFF THE GEORGIA
NEAR 31N73W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AHEAD OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRONT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
W OF 78W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
31N55W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N51W TO 30N44W. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S ALONG 24W OVER THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE WED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG 31N THROUGH FRI. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE NW OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE WATERS S OF 24N
SAT AND SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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