[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 02/1800 UTC IS NEAR 34.3N
37.2W. NADINE IS ABOUT 543 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING EAST AT 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-35N
BETWEEN 35W-39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N35W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N38W. THE LOW IS MOVING NNW
AT 15 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IT HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-20N
BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N49W TO 14N52W TO
9N52W MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO
6N15W TO 5N20W TO 5N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N24W TO 6N27W
TO 11N30W. A SMALL ITCZ IS SW OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 51W
EXTENDING FROM 8N54W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 7N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 16W-21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ NEAR TRINIDAD
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 58W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N84W
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W TO S MEXICO AT 16N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 83W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. 10-15 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE
W OF THE FRONT. 10 KT S WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE... A
1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER TEXAS...N MEXICO AND THE NW GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS
NEAR 29N96W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW GULF. ANOTHER
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 21N87W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE NE OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE
SE GULF...CUBA...AND FLORIDA.  EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE SE GULF...CUBA...AND FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 80W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER JAMAICA AND CENTRAL CUBA FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 77W-79W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 61W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORMING OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE W TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF
SURFACE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N50W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. T.S. NADINE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
37N21W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N53W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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