[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 01/1800 UTC IS NEAR 35.6N
39.4W. NADINE IS MOVING S AT 4 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE AZORES. PLEASE
READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
...FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N
OF THE CENTER FROM 36N-38N BETWEEN 37W-39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N30W TO 9N33W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N32W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 27W-34W...AND FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 31W-38W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N45W TO 7N48W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 46W-50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
44W-47W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 6N11W TO
6N14W TO 11N22W TO 8N34W TO 8N40W TO 6N48W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N48W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME AT 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-15W...
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 24W-26W...AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 20W-24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N87W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N90W TO S MEXICO AT
19N95W. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
30N86W TO 26N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE SQUALL LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 93W-97W. 20 KT NW
SURFACE WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT S WINDS ARE E OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W
SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 22N W OF 90W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE SE GULF AND W CUBA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA...
THE SE GULF...AND W CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-80W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 60W-64W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA FROM
15N-23N BETWEEN 76W-85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NICARAGUA. EXPECT...CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 72W-77W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N50W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. T.S. NADINE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
38N20W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N49W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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