[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE AT 01/0900 UTC IS NEAR 36.3N
39.3W. NADINE IS MOVING SOUTHWARD 5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM/55 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 NM/205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 35N
TO 37N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 48W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W 10N25W 11N29W 9N32W 7N48W. THE ITCZ DOES NOT EXIST
AT THIS MOMENT DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FIELD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND
25W AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 12W AND FROM
10N TO 16N TO THE EAST OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A....
AND THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AT THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
20N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...INTO
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE COAST NEAR
20N TO 26N100W IN MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
95W FROM 18N IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 20N...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N86W 28N87W 24N90W
20N94W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH
THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N87W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE HONDURAS COAST.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N TO 24N IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING ACROSS CUBA...BETWEEN
80W AND 95W IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W AND FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 80W AND 83W MOVING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS OF EL SALVADOR.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N46W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N48W 19N51W TO 12N56W TO 8N60W ALONG
THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA BORDER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 71W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W IN SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL AND 80W. THE EARLIER STRONG
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TAKING PLACE IN JAMAICA HAS ENDED AND
NOW IT IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE ISLAND.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...10N81W...
BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF
5N. MANY OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA HAVE WARMED.
SOME CELLS OF STRONG PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF 5N IN
COLOMBIA...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 67W FROM 20N TO 28N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE BAHAMAS AND JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N46W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N48W 19N51W TO 12N56W TO 8N60W ALONG
THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA BORDER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 12N TO
23N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W AND FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W
AND FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
01/0000 UTC FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.80 OF AN INCH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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