[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010622
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE AT 01/0300 UTC IS NEAR
36.7N 39.4W. NADINE IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 6 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM/55 KM FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 110 NM/205 KM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 35N TO 37N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N26W 14N28W...
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N29W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 24W AND 30W...AND FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N40W 16N43W 11N45W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N38W 15N43W 9N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS
FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W...POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W 13N24W 9N30W 7N40W 6N44W 6N48W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N48W TO 7N53W...AND THE GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER NEAR 6N57W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 8N24W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 48W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A....
AND THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 22N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N96W
TO 21N98W AND 26N101W IN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 30N88W 25N90W 22N94W 20N96W...AND IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
20N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH
THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N86W...ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N TO CUBA NEAR 22N BETWEEN 80W AND
92W IN MEXICO. EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE
COAST FROM 10N TO 12N FOR PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ALSO IS FROM 14N TO CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 82W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N52W TO 10N55W TO NORTHEASTERN GUYANA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 66W.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM 16N
TO 21N IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ENCOMPASSES ALL OF JAMAICA AND THE JAMAICA
CHANNEL...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE WATERS THAT AREA BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N71W...THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 20N73W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...11N80W...
BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 9N72.5W ALONG
THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...SCATTERED
STRONG IN THE WATERS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE COAST FROM
10N TO 12N FOR PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N80W 33N78W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TO GULF OF
MEXICO DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N52W TO 10N55W TO NORTHEASTERN GUYANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W...AND FROM
25N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N71W...THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 20N73W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 27N
BETWEEN 72W AND 73W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
01/0000 UTC FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.80 OF AN INCH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 13N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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