[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...NEAR 25N43W.. HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TO THE NORTH
AT 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N14W TO 05N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N23W TO 07N33W TO 06N40W TO 09N45W. A 1008 MB LOW
IS FURTHER W NEAR 09N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN
12W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALSO E OF TRINIDAD FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA PRODUCING
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS HOWEVER
EMBEDDED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM 26N89W TO 22N86W
MOVING SLOWLY W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF E OF 85W FROM 23N-27N
MOVING W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF W OF 85W.
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W HAS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS ALSO OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO MIAMI FLORIDA. EXPECT
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO SET IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AREA OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 83W-89W. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 77W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W S OF 14N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
35N72W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A SHEARLINE
EXTENDS FROM 31N52W TO 26N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 23N74W.
20-25 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 10-15 KT
NE WINDS ARE S OF THE AXIS. AN ARE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF HISPANIOLA FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 62W-74W. A SPECIAL FEATURE IS OVER THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N43W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 30W-42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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