[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT ANALYZED IN THE ATLC BASIN. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N20W 10N41W TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
9N46W ALONG 8N53W TO JUST E OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 8N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 43W
AND THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA...WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM 4N12W TO 5N18W...AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 9N21W TO
7N26W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N57W TO JUST INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 57W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
OVER THE NW GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N97W TO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
25N98W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
22N-28N W OF 93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STREAMING ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 26N E OF 86W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH LATE FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE N
VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NNE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THE MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS S PANAMA/COSTA RICA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. REMNANT LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 84W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC/GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN
FROM THE NE THROUGH TUE TO MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 30N63W COVERING THE AREA W OF
50W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 45W-70W CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
32N55W EXTENDING TO 27N62W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
25N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE FROM 28N52W TO BEYOND 32N48W. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD W OF THE FRONT COVERING THE W ATLC AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. TO THE SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
71W FROM OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N TO 23N GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 61W FROM 18N-23N GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH S OF 21N. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 28N46W TO 18N41W SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N47W THROUGH A WEAK 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 21N48W TO 17N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 20N38W TO 26N43W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC E OF 45W AND ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE
AZORES. THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
SHEAR LINE FRI THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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