[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 05N24W TO 09N42W TO 07N50W TO 07N59W. A
1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR 08N46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-17N BETWEEN 23W-40W
AND FOCUSES AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 12N32W TO
08N38W. THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LARGELY ENHANCED DUE TO
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL OF LIFT LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG A LINE FROM 24N92W TO
28N95W WHERE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. TO THE SW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 19N94W TO 24N97W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING E OF 90W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA AND CAROLINAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W INFLUENCES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW W OF 70W AND WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF 70W. WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS
REMAIN DRY AND UNDER RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN TWO AREAS ALONG THE
CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH SNAKES ALONG 12N83W TO
15N84W TO 17N87W TO 21N88W WHERE MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 82W-88W IN VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN
75W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 58W AND DIPS
SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 32N WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N60W TO 26N70W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N
BETWEEN 54W AND THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT S OF 29N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO 25N69W AND IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 67W-73W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
WEST OF THE COLD FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA
AND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER EAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR
44N29W. LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING...A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N44W AND IS
PROVIDING AMPLE DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 40W-47W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS CONVECTION FROM 19N-27N ALONG 47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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