[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N25W 9N35W 8N38W 9N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 25W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E LOUISIANA OVER THE W GULF TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N93W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH IN S
KENTUCKY. A MID LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN
TAMPICO AND TUXPAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
COAST FROM 24N98W TO 19N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
E OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE NW
VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO OVER
THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W ALONG 19N86W IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH S OF 21N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING DENSE LOW
CLOUD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W
OF 81W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DRIFT W THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 30N71W COVERING THE AREA W OF 55W. AN
UPPER TROUGH N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
W ATLC AT 29/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N62W EXTENDING ALONG 29N65W TO
27N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 26N74W THEN DISSIPATES
ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 27W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD W OF THE FRONT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER S
KENTUCKY. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 13N
BETWEEN 40W-55W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
27N48W TO 20N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N40W TO 24N45W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 50W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. COLD FRONT WILL DEGENERATE FROM A
STATIONARY FRONT TO A SHEAR LINE FRI THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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