[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N27W 9N37W 7N45W 8N54W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W-25W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN
33W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER INTO
THE W GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF GIVING THE GULF W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH IN S KENTUCKY. A MID
LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 24N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE NW
VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO OVER
THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
21N86W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING DENSE LOW CLOUD WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-14N W OF 81W TO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI THEN DRIFTING W SAT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU THEN WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NEW HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SHIFTS E OFF OF THE CONUS MID ATLC COAST. TRADE WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THU THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 30N70W COVERING THE AREA W OF 55W. AN
UPPER TROUGH N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
W ATLC JUST W OF BERMUDA EXTENDING ALONG 28N70W ACROSS THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
28W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER S KENTUCKY. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-55W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 50W/51W BETWEEN
22N-29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED FROM 17N-29N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A WEAKNESS
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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