[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 11N14W TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N18W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N30W 8N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 6N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 20W-30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 35W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO
JALAPA MEXICO AT 20N97W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWERS
ARE NOTED. 15 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS
10-15 KT S WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE NW GULF. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE TO S FLORIDA
AND DISSIPATE. SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MEXICAN COAST HOWEVER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 21N85W TO
CENTRAL NICARAGUA AT 12N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE ...AND CONTINUES TO
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR TRINIDAD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N72W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE
TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N41W TO 25N45W TO 20N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
23N-30N BETWEEN 43W-47W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE CARIBBEAN HIGH W OF 60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N52W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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