[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 8N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N40W 8N52W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 7N58W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
16W-28W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO MATAMOROS
MEXICO AT 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT. 15 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS
10-15 KT S WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER N FLORIDA...AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N MEXICO...TEXAS...AND
THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL BE DISSIPATING.
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND MEXICAN COAST HOWEVER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N85W TO
CENTRAL NICARAGUA AT 12N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 82W-87W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN
80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE
...AND CONTINUES TO CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR TRINIDAD. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N71W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N40W TO 25N45W TO 21N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 43W-52W. A 1011 MB LOW IS S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N15W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW TO 22N22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE LOW CENTER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
GOING AROUND THE CARIBBEAN HIGH W OF 55W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 55W. EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
PERSIST NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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