[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271127
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA BISSAU BUT DOES NOT ENTER THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT THE COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N30W 5N41W 6N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 2N TO
INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 1W-7W AND FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
12W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW GULF AT 27/0900 UTC ACROSS LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N93W ALONG 28N96W THEN SW TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO S TEXAS NEAR
BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A
LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N92W TO INLAND
OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT.
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA AND THE GULF
TO TAMPICO MEXICO. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO TONIGHT THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THROUGH WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N84W ACROSS THE E PORTION OF HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 10N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM
11N80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. THE FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N W OF 80W. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W
ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH WED THEN WILL
DIMINISH THU THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN
AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND
32N78W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA W OF 55W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS NEAR 31N69W AND 32N61W. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 35W-60W
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N40W ALONG 27N43W TO 24N53W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
19N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 54W AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 45W-54W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 28N51W
TO 26N58W. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG
THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 26N15W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NE TO NEAR 29N12W AND SW OF THE LOW TO 25N18W. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
SE CONUS TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS N WATERS
THROUGH WED EVENING THEN TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE AS THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM NEAR 32N53W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS THU THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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