[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N23W 8N31W 9N52W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N
BETWEEN 13W-30W AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS
INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE GULF
GIVING THE NW GULF RETURN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ABOVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER
TONIGHT REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO WED MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH LATE
WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH
SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N71W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 81W FROM 17N TO PANAMA NEAR 9N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 79W-85W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. THE FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N W OF 80W. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH WED THEN
WILL DIMINISH THU THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN
AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND
32N80W AND COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA W OF 55W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 32N40W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 26N44W TO 24N50W THEN DISSIPATES TO 21N60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
E OF 46W AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 46W-52W. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SECOND COLD FRONT N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N15W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NE INTO MOROCCO NEAR 29N11W AND SW OF THE LOW
TO 22N19W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
LOW. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 20W-35W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE SE CONUS TUE EVENING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RE-BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE W ATLC AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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