[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 7N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N23W 6N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N
OF 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 8W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 10W-26W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
23W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 26/0900 UTC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 23.5N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO 22.5N87W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE NE GULF IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
OVER S GEORGIA. THIS IS GIVING THE NW GULF RETURN SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG BEING
REPORTED N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL INCREASE IN THE NW GULF TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL THEN REACH FROM S MISSISSIPPI TO NE MEXICO TUE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N64W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM SW HAITI NEAR 19N74W TO 13N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF
THE TROUGH N OF 12N. THE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N E OF 67W AND S OF
15N BETWEEN 69W-77W. THESE SURFACE TRADE WINDS COUPLE WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. REMNANT MOISTURE
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 53W-75W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 26/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W CONTINUING ALONG 28N62W TO 26N66W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N73W THEN DISSIPATES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23.5N80W.
THIS AREA REMAINS DRY...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 31N73W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC...N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N41W CONTINUING TO 27N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
22N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N32W TO 25N36W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE
FAR E ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER NW
AFRICA SUPPORTING A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 30N17W WITH AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W EXTENDING E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO JUST
INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA ALONG 26N13W RE-ENTERING THE E ATLC
TO 23N14W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N23W THEN DISSIPATES
TO 21N30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE
ENTIRE THE FRONT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS TUE EVENING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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