[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W CONTINUING TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N27W TO 2N37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
BETWEEN 2W-6W...FROM 2N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-17W...
FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO 9N BETWEEN 13W-28W...AND FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 24W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W ALONG
THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO 23N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
OVER THE NE GULF BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.
THIS IS GIVING THE NW GULF RETURN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG BEING REPORTED FROM 26N TO
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/E TEXAS BETWEEN 90W-95W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY TUE MORNING REACHING FROM S MISSISSIPPI
TO NE MEXICO BY TUE EVENING THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA
TO NE MEXICO WED WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N64W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 18N75W TO 12N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 16N. THE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 75W AND ARE BANKING LOW DENSE LOW CLOUDS
WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY INLAND OVER W PANAMA/COSTA RICA AND WITHIN
60 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 11N W OF 80W. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 21N77W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 58W-80W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N57W CONTINUING ALONG 27N68W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W. THIS AREA REMAINS DRY...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W AND A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC...N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N42W CONTINUING TO 26N48W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
22N57W THEN CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO NE OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N32W TO 23N45W.
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE FAR E ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N E
OF 25W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA SUPPORTING A 1000 MB LOW NEAR
31N18W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N14W EXTENDING
THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 22N19W TO 21N27W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 11W-17W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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