[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 7N30W 8N41W
8N50W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N59W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W
AND 33W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL  WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
ALSO COVERS THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N70W...
TO NORTHERN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...TO COASTAL CUBA NEAR 23N83W...AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
TO THE EAST OF 90W...IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 95W/96W FROM 19N TO 26N. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 93W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 20N TO 25N TO THE WEST
OF 95W...FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W...AND TO THE NORTH
OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE
TIME PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 25/1200 UTC FOR VERACRUZ MEXICO WAS
0.28 INCHES.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N86W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN
HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS DIFFLUENT...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AS IT REACHES AND CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE REMAINING WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 10N TO 18N. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N79W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 8N84W JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 8N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 9.5N81W...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 4N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 60N...PASSING
THROUGH 32N TO 26N. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N70W...BEYOND ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 30N44W AND 27N48W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N48W TO 23N55W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N55W TO 19N62W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N38W 27N44W 26N50W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 26N50W 24N56W 19N64W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N18W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 21N18W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1000 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR 30N20W...NEAR
32N18W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE 1000 MB LOW
CENTER...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH 32N15W...THROUGH THE
EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N20W AND 22N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 20W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
WITH THE 31N43W 19N63W COLD FRONT...AND 20 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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