[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO 7N30W 7N40W
AND 8N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N52W 8N53W TO 6N54W
ALONG FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME COASTAL BORDER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W...WITH THE 52W/54W TROUGH
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 5N IN NORTHWESTERN SURINAME TO 10N BETWEEN
50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
COVERING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 26N73W...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS/
WESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N67W...ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N77W
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM 32N69W TO 29N73W AND 29N78W. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PART OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 34N66W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N97W TO 19N95W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AGAINST THE MEXICO COAST...
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N97W TO 19N93W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N86W TO 24N94W...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST CENTRAL WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N72W...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 15N75W AND 10N77W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N79W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 8N83W IN THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE
PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND
8N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 7N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 13N IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN 72W AND 85W.
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE AREA IS
SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND
80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF 81W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W
TO 24N29W AND 20N30W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 24N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
43W/44W FROM 20N TO 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 32N25W 27N31W 21N38W...AND FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN
39W AND 45W.

REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG
19N29W 12N39W 10N44W...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N14W TO 27N21W AND 23N32W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEAS TO THE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 65W...AND 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
10 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 31N66W 20N73W COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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