[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
8N17W 7N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N21W TO 6N25W 5N34W 6N46W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N47W 9N48W 6N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 46W WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ...AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W
AND 51W WITH THE 47W/48W SURFACE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THIS FEATURE IS TO THE EAST
OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 17N36W
12N40W 8N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
INCLUDING COVERING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THAT IS ABOUT 215 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS BEING PULLED FROM THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES
NEAR LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N97W IN
EAST TEXAS...TO 23N95W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N97W TO 19N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 24N96W TO 20N94W AND 19N94W.

A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N97W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL
HONDURAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO EASTERN HONDURAS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N66W ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST
OF PUERTO RICO...TO 16N69W AND 14N71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...PASSING THROUGH
9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
75W IN COLOMBIA...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 80W AND 89W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
THAT IS IN THE AREA IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OF THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF 81W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 50W AND THE
30N77W-TO-FLORIDA STRAITS TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH...FROM A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N62W 31N67W 29N73W AND 31N78W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N69W...TO 26N68W 24N72W AND 22N76W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE 32N51W 20N72W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO
27N40W 25N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N39W TO 28N44W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING FROM 28N44W
TO 26N50W 26N54W AND 20N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N64W 21N62W 23N59W 26N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N66W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N17W TO 24N33W 20N45W TO 19N60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS WITH
THE 31N48W 20N65W COLD FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO
10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 65W...
AND 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH
A FORECAST COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG 31N65W TO 21N75W IN ABOUT
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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