[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W TO 7N19W 6N28W
5N33W...AND TO 5N52W IN THE FRENCH GUIANA COASTAL WATERS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 7W AND 35W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 4N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A....BETWEEN THE
EAST COAST AND 100W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...TO ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS.

THE 99W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 20/1100 UTC HAS FLATTENED OUT
CONSIDERABLY. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS IN
MEXICO HAS MUCH MORE OF A WELL-DEFINED NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
SOUTHEASTERLY ANGLE TO IT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N95W 21N95W 19N92W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
EAST OF 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN COASTAL
MEXICO NEAR 22N98W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...ACROSS GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS...INTO NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THAT ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES
OF JAMAICA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...AND
PUERTO RICO.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N69W 16N66W 18N64W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...PASSING THROUGH
9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
6N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 87W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW THAT IS IN THE AREA IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OF THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 84W.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF 81W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W
TO 24N62W TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W
TO 28N61W 23N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N63W 21N65W
TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 28N68W 27N72W
28N76W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALSO APPEARS ALONG 32N63W
31N67W 30N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N41W TO 12N45W AND 6N51W.
IS ALONG 50W FROM 15N TO 22N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W.

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 29N27W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 29N27W TO 29N36W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 13N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEAS WITH
THE 31N59W 24N66W COLD FRONT...20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 27N50W TO 24N42W
23N38W 27N35W...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net