[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N21W TO 7N26W TO
8N37W AND 9N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 11N37W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 26N72W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO JAMAICA...TO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA. THE TROUGH
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N76W...AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT RUNS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 30N74W AND 28N73W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
28N73W TO 24N76W IN THE BAHAMAS AND 23N79W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 23N79W...ACROSS CUBA...TO 23N87W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG 31N76W 27N67W 23N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N92W 20N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...TO 17N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE NORTHERN SHORES
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND THE LINE 30N65W
24N70W AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W AND SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF
70W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 85W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 81W.

A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO 24N96W...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 99W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PARTLY
RELATED TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE 32N71W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND PARTLY RELATED TO THE 99W RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THAT ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES
OF JAMAICA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...AND
PUERTO RICO.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...
10N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND 9N83W
IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST
OF 78W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE
AREA IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N40W...
TO A 17N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 9N43W...INTO
NORTHERN COASTAL SURINAME. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N43W
19N46W 15N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N55W 12N47W
15N41W 19N40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N25W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 19N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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