[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N17W TO 10N20W 8N30W 8N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N36W
TO 7N34W 8N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 19W AND 31W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
1N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N78W...PASSING THROUGH 31N78W...PASSING ON TOP OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND CURVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 25N84W
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 23N87W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE
WEST OF 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W...
AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 20N AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 74W.

A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO NORTHERN NICARAGUA...
AND CENTRAL COSTA RICA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PARTLY
RELATED TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE 32N77W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND PARTLY RELATED TO THE 100W RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS BETWEEN 66W AND THE LINE 16N83W-BEYOND-22N80W.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THAT PART OF CUBA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 80W...HISPANIOLA...AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
MUCH OF THIS WIND REGIME SIMPLY IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N77W CYCLONIC CENTER.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 66W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W...THROUGH SOUTHERN
PANAMA NEAR 8N71W...BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 72W.
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUD
TOPS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS ELSEWHERE
BETWEEN 69W AND 82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 68W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N
TO 14N TO THE WEST OF 82W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N40W
TO A 17N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N43W 9N43W 7N51W
TO 6N59W IN GUYANA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N38W 14N42W
10N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN
39W AND 41W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
7N TO 22N BETWEEN 28W AND 58W.

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 25N62W 20N68W...IN THE AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT ORIGINATES
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH SHOWS UP SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA ALONG 16N32W
13N34W 10N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N17W TO 27N27W 26N46W 23N59W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WITH THE 31N78W 24N80W COLD FRONT...FOR THE 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN
35W AND 47W...AND FOR THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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