[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N17W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W TO 6N28W 7N34W
6N43W 8N48W 8N55W 9N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N78W...PASSING THROUGH 30N78W...PASSING ON TOP OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO 25N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 23N87W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
20N85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 75W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 29N BETWEEN 29N87W 24N81W AND
92W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 83W.

A SURFACE RIDGE CURVES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO 29N92W
24N96W 19N95W...CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL HONDURAS...
THROUGH EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND ULTIMATELY TO CENTRAL COSTA
RICA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PARTLY
RELATED TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE 32N78W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND PARTLY RELATED TO THE 100W RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS BETWEEN 66W AND THE LINE 16N83W-BEYOND-22N80W.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THAT PART OF CUBA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 80W...HISPANIOLA...AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
MUCH OF THIS WIND REGIME SIMPLY IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N78W CYCLONIC CENTER.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 66W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA...
TO 11N78W...SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER THAT
IS NEAR 9N83W...AND BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 72W.
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUD
TOPS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS ELSEWHERE
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 69W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N
TO THE WEST OF 82W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 25N62W 20N68W.

A SURFACE TROUGH SHOWS UP SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA ALONG
16N32W 13N34W 10N34W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 12 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WITH THE 31N77W 25N80W COLD FRONT...FOR THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 35W AND
47W...AND FOR THE 30 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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